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Water FractalTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive Thursday Weeklies 6/12
decks
4
(10.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1226
· median 1230
· range 1144–1299
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1188
Q3 1448
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
